- Compared to July, Truveta Data shows a 70.1% increase in the rate of COVID-19 positive tests and a 74.1% increase in the percentage of hospitalizations associated with COVID.
- Compared to 7 days prior, we see an 11.2% increase in the rate of COVID positive tests and an 18.6% increase in the percentage of hospitalizations associated with COVID.
- We will continue to monitor these trends in our monthly respiratory virus monitoring report.
In our August 2023 respiratory virus monitoring report, we began to see early evidence of increases in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations. We’ve continued to monitor these trends and continue to see increases.
We’re sharing a mid-cycle, shortened version of the monthly report to highlight the trends in COVID-associated hospitalizations and the rate of COVID positive tests we’re seeing within Truveta Data.
Methods
Within a subset of Truveta Data, we identified people who received a laboratory test for a respiratory virus infection (COVID, influenza, or RSV). Positivity was defined as a positive value for any LOINC code listed in the monitoring report supplement. We calculated two outcomes:
- The rate of weekly positive tests
- The daily rate of virus-related hospitalizations compared to all hospitalizations (plotted as a 7-day rolling average)
Virus-associated hospitalizations were defined as a positive test within 14 days before the hospitalization or a positive test during the same encounter as the hospitalization. Virus-associated hospitalizations within 90 days were considered to be the same infection and thus only counted once.
Outcomes are plotted through August 18, 2023. We describe the 7- and 28-day percent change.
Results
COVID-related hospitalizations began increasing in mid- to late July. Compared to 28-days prior, we see an increase of 74.1% (0.4% on July 21 compared to 0.7% on August 18) in the percentage of hospitalizations associated with COVID.
In the most recent week, from August 11 to August 18 (7 days), we see an uptick of 18.6% (0.6% on August 11 compared to 0.7% on August 18) in the percentage of hospitalizations associated with COVID.
The rate of positive COVID tests began increasing in June. Compared to 28-days prior, we see the rate of positive COVID tests increased by 70.1% (10.3% on July 21 compared to 17.5% on August 18).
In the most recent week, from August 11 to August 18 (7 days), we see the percentage of positive tests increased by 11.2% (15.8% on August 11 compared to 17.5% on August 18).
Discussion
Over the past few weeks, there has been a notable surge in the rate of positive COVID tests and an increase in the percentage of COVID-associated hospitalizations, signaling a concerning trend. This increase in positive cases has raised concerns among public health officials, as it suggests a potential resurgence of the virus and highlights the ongoing importance of vaccination campaigns, preventive measures, and public awareness efforts.
There are a few limitations with the data presented here. First, COVID-associated hospitalizations do not necessarily indicate that a person was hospitalized because of COVID. Second, while we are capturing laboratory tests performed within a healthcare system (including outpatient lab tests), we are not capturing tests performed outside of the lab (i.e., at-home tests). Third, these are raw counts and post-stratification methods have not been conducted. We do not report the raw counts of tests captured here, although these are available in the regularly updated monitoring report.
We will continue to monitor these respiratory viruses over the coming weeks and months as we enter the cold and flu season with our respiratory virus monitoring report.
These are preliminary research findings and not peer reviewed. Data are constantly changing and updating. These findings are consistent with data accessed on August 30, 2023.